Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 32.328263 34.819220 37.518084 40.679173 44.305904 48.368591 53.309677
2025-05-11 28.474409 31.774762 35.575356 40.343960 46.269564 53.538304 63.379516
2025-05-18 25.964811 29.630936 34.022280 39.793953 47.383731 57.351685 72.069840
2025-05-25 24.027390 27.867797 32.602691 39.048332 47.909266 60.217189 79.815691
2025-06-01 22.492509 26.423131 31.382212 38.329525 48.243650 62.704991 87.389817
2025-06-08 21.105362 25.039133 30.091969 37.333528 47.985985 64.175226 93.550341
2025-06-15 20.642068 24.800779 30.267856 38.341741 50.716169 70.634664 110.190740
2025-06-22 19.846598 24.058657 29.688089 38.184818 51.611412 74.203339 122.506349
2025-06-29 18.989522 23.177841 28.847459 37.552206 51.647560 76.245133 132.296012
2025-07-06 18.094150 22.196262 27.801724 36.518252 50.896052 76.704686 138.615432
2025-07-13 17.915316 22.188873 28.135271 37.614221 53.834455 84.681303 167.388751
2025-07-20 17.629068 22.010897 28.201954 38.283623 56.102163 91.827275 198.757996
2025-07-27 17.256394 21.709882 28.094290 38.706794 58.071154 99.052092 237.650139
2025-08-03 16.727293 21.160574 27.583791 38.424383 58.686154 103.411661 271.092735
2025-08-10 16.185342 20.567389 26.971868 37.917876 58.794674 106.587449 303.731078
2025-08-17 15.639963 19.946396 26.284699 37.229158 58.453648 108.557531 333.761316
2025-08-24 15.137128 19.368960 25.637615 36.564533 58.086674 110.399904 366.864747
2025-08-31 14.607547 18.733509 24.872274 35.642578 57.086329 110.296637 388.606847
2025-09-07 14.519000 18.752029 25.137922 36.575834 60.156350 122.835686 539.572204
2025-09-14 14.206224 18.419602 24.824744 36.430659 60.837907 128.413393 657.846349
2025-09-21 13.820687 17.963751 24.292604 35.845103 60.453043 130.439460 748.491143
2025-09-28 13.379287 17.410206 23.581890 34.887007 59.115879 128.927686 784.818887
2025-10-05 13.351894 17.489285 23.907313 35.902526 62.544255 145.564156 1361.332846